The Real Cost of a College Education: Outcomes, Debt, and Return on Investment - by Patricia Nehme

One of the most common misconceptions I encounter during the college search process is the belief that a large scholarship automatically means a college is affordable.

In reality, families should focus less on the size of a scholarship and more on what the college will actually cost their family.

Many colleges today use what is called tuition discounting. In simple terms, colleges may offer institutional scholarships not only to reward achievement, but also to attract students, increase enrollment, improve academic statistics, broaden geographic diversity, or compete with other institutions.

For example, a family may receive a letter stating:

"Congratulations! Your student has been awarded a Presidential Scholarship worth $30,000 per year."

Naturally, this sounds exciting.

However, if the college's Cost of Attendance is $85,000 per year, the family may still be responsible for approximately $55,000 annually.

The scholarship is real and meaningful, but it may function more as a discount off a very high published price than as a reflection of what the family can actually afford.

This is why I encourage families to focus on Net Price rather than scholarship amount.

Net Price = Cost of Attendance – Grants and Scholarships (many times loans too)

Two students may receive very different scholarship offers, yet one family's actual out-of-pocket cost may be lower than another's.

It is also important to understand that colleges generally approach financial aid in different ways:

  • Some colleges primarily offer need-based aid (federal and institutional methodology)

  • Some colleges use merit scholarships strategically to attract desirable applicants.

  • Some colleges meet full demonstrated financial need with grants

  • Some colleges include loans as part of their financial aid packages.

  • Some colleges do not meet a student's full demonstrated need, leaving a financial gap for the family to cover.

Because of these differences, families should be cautious about comparing scholarship amounts between colleges. FAMILIES also need to realize the financial aid awards can change from year to year.

Instead, ask:

  • What will our family actually pay?

  • Is the scholarship renewable?

  • What GPA is required to keep it?

  • Does the financial aid package include loans?

  • What is the estimated four-year cost?

  • How does this compare to our in-state options?

Looking Beyond Cost: Evaluating the Health of a College

Affordability is only one piece of the decision-making process.

Families should also consider the long-term health and stability of the institution itself.

Across higher education, many colleges are facing significant challenges:

  • Declining numbers of traditional college-aged students in many regions of the country.

  • Rising operating costs.

  • Increasing competition for students.

  • Changes in workforce demands.

  • The growing influence of technology and artificial intelligence on teaching, learning, and academic programming.

  • LOOK at enrollment, retention and graduation rates; look at OUTCOMES

As a result, colleges may:

  • Reduce faculty positions.

  • Eliminate academic departments.

  • Consolidate majors.

  • Reduce course offerings.

  • Merge programs or schools.

  • Shift resources toward programs with stronger student demand or workforce outcomes.

When evaluating a college, families should ask:

  • Is enrollment growing, stable, or declining?

  • Is the college financially healthy?

  • Does the institution have a strong endowment or financial reserves?

  • Has the college recently eliminated majors or academic departments?

  • Is my student's intended major growing or shrinking?

  • How will AI change my child’s intended major?

  • Does the institution appear to be investing in that area of study?

Particularly at smaller colleges, families should understand that the academic experience available to today's freshman should ideally remain available through graduation.

Looking Beyond Cost: Outcomes, Debt, and Return on Investment

Another important consideration is the relationship between college cost, student debt, and career outcomes.

Not all degrees lead to the same employment opportunities, starting salaries, or graduate school requirements. Likewise, the financial implications of borrowing may vary significantly depending on a student's intended career path.

For example, borrowing $25,000–$30,000 in federal student loans may be manageable for many graduates entering fields such as engineering, computer science, accounting, nursing, actuarial science, or other professions with strong early-career earnings.

However, the same level of debt may feel much more burdensome for graduates entering fields that typically require additional graduate study or that historically offer lower starting salaries.

Families should also recognize that where a student plans to live after graduation may influence the impact of student debt. A graduate beginning a career in New York City, San Francisco, Boston, Austin, or Washington, D.C., may face significantly higher housing and living costs than a graduate working in a smaller community or lower-cost region.

Student loans do not simply affect life during college. Debt can influence a graduate's choices for years afterward, including:

  • Where they live

  • Which jobs they can afford to accept

  • Whether they can pursue graduate school

  • Their ability to save for a home

  • Marriage and family planning decisions

  • Retirement savings and long-term financial security

As part of the college search process, I encourage families to ask:

  • What are the typical outcomes for graduates in this major?

  • What percentage of graduates are employed or enrolled in graduate school?

  • What are typical starting salaries?

  • What additional education or credentials may be required?

  • What is the average debt level of graduates?

  • Is the projected debt reasonable relative to anticipated earnings?

It is also important to remember that a student's first job after college is not the only measure of success. Students should pursue meaningful work that aligns with their interests, talents, and values. At the same time, families should enter the process with a realistic understanding of the financial implications of borrowing.

The Bigger Picture

The most important question is not:

"How much scholarship did my student receive?"

Nor is it simply:

"Can my student get admitted?"

The more important questions are:

  • Can our family realistically afford all four years?

  • Will this institution remain healthy and stable throughout my student's college experience?

  • Is the college investing in the programs and opportunities that matter to my student?

  • Will this major provide the opportunities and outcomes my student hopes to pursue?

  • Will this college prepare my student for a rapidly changing future?

The goal is not simply to gain admission or receive a scholarship.

The goal is to identify colleges that are academically, socially, financially, and strategically appropriate for your student and your family.

A college education should expand a student's future opportunities, not unnecessarily limit them through excessive debt.

Please let me know if you have questions.